Shifting tides – the future of Caribbean citizenship by investment

OPINION by Nuri Katz, President & CEO, Apex Capital Partners

The citizenship by investment world has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past couple of years, and where the industry is heading is very difficult to predict. Legislative and regulatory changes, not only in Antigua & Barbuda but across the Caribbean jurisdictions involved in investor immigration, will revolutionise the industry in ways we cannot yet fully imagine. Increased competition from new market entrants, alongside rising pricing in some jurisdictions and lower prices in others, is set to have a profound effect on CIP countries. These shifts will influence their ability to use investment migration to attract foreign direct investment and could substantially affect their GDP. The CIP countries, agents and potential investment migration stakeholders need to prepare for these changes and manage their programmes, systems and expectations to remain competitive and benefit from the investor immigration programme.

So, what is really going on? Here’s how I see the landscape changing, what it means for the different stakeholders, and how to manage the changes to benefit from them.

In February 2023, Caribbean CBI programmes, including Antigua & Barbuda’s, began a period of significant change. That month saw the first US Caribbean Roundtable on Citizenship by Investment, attended by the region’s prime ministers and senior US officials. The leaders agreed on six principles to guide their programmes, covering the handling of denials, mandatory interviews, programme audits, matters related to due diligence and the non-acceptance of applications from Russians and Belarusians. Further steps were taken in March and June 2024, when the CIP countries established a minimum price of US$200,000 and backed the creation of a regional regulator to oversee the operation of citizenship by investment units and other industry stakeholders.

The Eastern Caribbean Citizenship by Investment Regulatory Authority (ECCIRA) was established in late 2025 by five Eastern Caribbean nations (Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts & Nevis and St Lucia). This new body will serve as a single, regional body to bring consistency and stronger oversight to their citizenship by investment programmes. It aims to align rules across the board, strengthen oversight and enhance the integrity and transparency of the programmes in response to growing international scrutiny. The regulator will be transformative for the programmes.

The jump in pricing across the Caribbean programmes, in some cases a doubling, and the decision to align those prices across all jurisdictions has changed the landscape entirely. Higher prices have already reduced application numbers and will continue to do so. With price competition between the Caribbean CIP countries now virtually erased, the countries will need to compete in other ways, emphasising the individuality of each island and what it can offer “beyond the passport”. This type of competition is new territory and will require fresh thinking as countries look to attract a much smaller pool of potential clients. The key question is whether higher prices will offset the decrease in clientele, so governments can maintain the levels of FDI they have grown accustomed to receiving from their CIP.

Legislative and regulatory changes, not only in Antigua & Barbuda but across the Caribbean jurisdictions involved in investor immigration, will revolutionise the industry in ways we cannot yet fully imagine.

The second major change introduced by the regional regulator will be a 30-day residency requirement. New citizens will now need to spend at least 30 days in their chosen country within the first five years of being granted citizenship. It is a change that carries both risks and incredible opportunities.

For years, most applicants viewed Caribbean citizenship primarily as a way to gain an additional passport. What mattered were visa-free access, the price and the speed of processing the citizenship. The country itself was often an afterthought. That will no longer be the case. Having to spend meaningful time in the country makes the choice of jurisdiction far more personal and far more important. It will deter some applicants, since a month in the Caribbean demands both time and money, but it also opens the door to opportunities the programmes have never fully harnessed.

Each CIP country will now need to welcome and host its new citizens, and, done well, this can unlock enormous long-term value. A positive experience can spark a genuine connection, encouraging people to buy property, invest in a business or simply return year after year. Instead of a one-off transaction centred on a passport, the relationship has the potential to evolve into multi-year, even multi-generational engagement with the islands.

The challenge will be managing the potential dip in demand, yet the opportunity to build deeper, more meaningful ties with every new citizen has never been greater.

The third significant change to be ushered in by the ECCIRA is its responsibility for licensing all types of agents involved in the industry. Until now, both Caribbean and overseas companies that promote the programmes and represent clients have been licensed. However, the licensing mechanism was not standardised, nor was there real, strict and objective oversight of the companies. That era is ending. And this is a very important change.

Previously, the barrier to entry was low, and companies could obtain a licence without offering any real assurance of professionalism or accountability. Under ECCIRA, agents will need to meet consistent, enforceable standards similar to those required of immigration consultants in countries such as Canada and Australia. Obtaining and maintaining licenses will presumably become much more expensive and onerous. The licenses, which will include criminal and civil liability for agents who breach the authority’s conditions, will certainly deter many existing agents and likely push them out of business. The result will almost certainly be higher fees from those with the resources to remain in the industry. Better regulation is a welcome change, as many agents, generally foreign with little connection to the islands, have taken advantage of unsuspecting clients for decades, giving the industry a serious black eye.

Another major effect of the ECCIRA will be deeper cooperation and more systematic work across the citizenship by investment units, particularly in the area of due diligence. Caricom’s joint Regional Communications Centre, the region’s main collective law enforcement agency, will play a much more critical role in coordinating the due diligence process. Combined with new AI tools, this should streamline the application process and make it more robust. This can only be seen as a positive change for the programmes moving forward.

Some other interesting issues in the Caribbean CIP space are worth noting. For Antigua & Barbuda, the recent change of government in St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) may present an interesting dilemma. Many expect the new administration to move quickly to become the sixth country in the OECS to launch a citizenship by investment programme. It will be interesting to see how they create this and if they will join the ECCIRA and adhere to its requirements. Entering an already crowded field will not be easy, especially at a time when the Caribbean programmes are bracing for lower FDI. The new government in SVG will have to think long and hard, whatever commitments may have been made, as risks of joining the CIP world at this stage are considerable.

Having to spend meaningful time in the country makes the choice of jurisdiction far more personal and far more important.

Finally, another emerging challenge for the Caribbean programmes is the arrival of new CIPs in São Tomé and Príncipe, Botswana and Nauru. These schemes offer far fewer travel benefits than the Caribbean passports. However, their pricing, reportedly starting at US$75,000 in Botswana and US$90,000 in São Tomé and Príncipe, will pose serious competition for clients interested in a second citizenship for reasons other than visa-free travel, as well as for those who are more price-sensitive.

Clearly, there are many challenges ahead for the Caribbean CIP world. However, every challenge brings an opportunity, and the chance to build closer relations with new citizens could pay off for Antigua & Barbuda and others in spades.