by Dominic Volek, Managing Partner, Member of the Executive Committee and Group Head Sales, Henley & Partners
For many of us, January 2020 commenced with a sense of promise – not just of a new month or a year, but a new decade. Fast-forward to September and the world has been turned upside down, violently shaken, and given the reality check of a lifetime. The warning signs may have been ignored for decades, but the coronavirus pandemic has now confronted us directly with our own fragility, our precariousness, but perhaps most of all, our utter unpreparedness.
Looking the other way is no longer an option, the evidence is everywhere, and we are being told in no uncertain terms that change is crucial, future pandemics are to be expected, and we need to be prepared.
In ironic contrast to the coronavirus, which is on a seemingly haphazard trip around the world of unknown duration and which knows no border checks or interminable queues at passport control, most of the world’s population was grounded almost overnight when the Great Lockdown commenced. In such unprecedented circumstances, with entire families’ homes, schools, businesses, and leisure activities merging in single, claustrophobia-inducing locations, many individuals were given more time, if not space, to contemplate like never before.
The unplanned pause has resulted in people from all walks of life across the globe re-evaluating their situations and reconsidering how they wish to conduct their lives and, more importantly – for those fortunate enough – to choose where they want to live.
A spike in demand led by pandemic preparedness and healthcare
It is not surprising then that along with the global devastation it has caused, the pandemic appears to have triggered a sharp increase in demand for alternative residence and citizenship among high- and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (H/UHNWIs) worldwide, and crisis management and access to first-rate healthcare are two new drawcards. At Henley & Partners, we saw a notable 47 percent leap in enquiries between Q1 and Q2 2020.
This turn of events was predicted by FutureMap founder Dr. Parag Khanna, who wrote that as the coronavirus curtain lifted, people would seek to move from poorly governed and ill-prepared places to more proactive countries with greater resilience and better medical care.
During the lockdown, many individuals realised that they could work remotely with success and that there were options available to them, and many have now begun to research and prepare for their post-Covid lives.
Reports are emerging from developed countries such as the UK and the USA of people leaving cities in search of a quieter life. We see this desire for new beginnings playing out on an international scale too, with investors actively seeking out relocation options, so that once global mobility has been reinstated, they and their families can live in more peaceful, far-flung locations that offer a better quality of life and cleaner air.
The investment migration industry has been growing steadily for over 15 years, but if in the past, an alternative residence or citizenship were ‘nice-to-have’ assets of convenience that enhanced travel freedom and provided vacation homes, Covid-19 has prompted a noticeable shift. They are now becoming ‘must-have’ essential assets because of the undeniable benefits they bring.
The investment migration industry has been growing steadily for over 15 years, but if in the past, an alternative residence or citizenship were ‘nice-to-have’ assets of convenience that enhanced travel freedom and provided vacation homes, covid-19 has prompted a noticeable shift. They are now becoming ‘must-have’ essential assets because of the undeniable benefits they bring.
Astute investors recognise that by extending their wealth planning and legacy management strategies to include investment migration, they are able to catalyse the transition to new lives in countries of their choice – countries that host investment migration programs, such as Antigua & Barbuda – where they feel more comfortable and secure, and where they envisage a future that is better aligned with their aspirations not just for now but for generations to come.
Before Covid-19, people chose where to reside based on fairly predictable factors such as quality of living, access to education, a clean environment, and safety; in future they will also consider factors such as reliable infrastructure, self-sufficiency, access to good healthcare, reliable air links for hasty repatriation, and effective handling of crisis scenarios. In short, countries that have handled the current crisis well will gain in popularity.
We already saw a 31 percent increase in applications for the popular Antigua & Barbuda Citizenship by Investment Programme (CIP) between Q4 2019 and Q1 2020, and the number of applications remained high in Q2 2020. This figure is expected to rise even further now that the country has ably demonstrated it can handle a pandemic. Investment migration has also captured the attention of several new wealth markets in recent months. There has been a notable increase in the number of enquiries from citizens of Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Nigeria, and Pakistan since the end of 2019.
As pointed out by Prof. Dr. Yossi Harpaz, Assistant Professor of Sociology at Tel Aviv University, in times of such uncertainty, global demand for dual citizenship and investor visas is expected to increase, and in the coming months we anticipate even more applicants from countries that have not been able to control the spread of the virus adequately.
The Caribbean region has handled the pandemic extremely well, with island nations such as Antigua & Barbuda taking advantage of their relative size and isolating themselves from the novel coronavirus speedily, soon after the pandemic was declared.
Alternative revenue streams in times of crisis
When catastrophes such a pandemic strike, and in the wake of other climate emergencies and natural disasters such as the destructive hurricanes that the Caribbean regularly endures, the countries that host RCBI programmes can rely on programme inflows to recover their economies, build capacity, reduce debt, and make capital investments. RCBI programmes are designed by sovereign states as an alternative, debt-free capital raising platform to diversify their economies, thereby creating societal and sovereign value – we refer to this as ‘sovereign equity’. Just as UHNWI demand for RCBI programmes has been growing in recent years, so has supply. Over 100 countries have investment migration legislation in place, and there are over 60 active programmes globally, of which about 30 are relevant and successful.
Just as UHNWI demand for RCBI programmes has been growing in recent years, so has supply.
The government instituted the Antigua & Barbuda CIP as a means of sovereign equity financing in 2013 when national debt exceeded the dangerous level of 100 percent of GDP and the economy had contracted by 0.1 percent. Programme revenues quickly ramped up, exceeding US$260 million in 2017, a significant contribution to an economy of US$1.5 billion. Programme inflows represented a lifeline that year when Hurricane Irma devastated the island nation. Tourism revenue slowed in the wake of the storm, but construction activities – partially funded by the CBI programme – helped mitigate fallout from reduced travel demand.
RCBI programmes are invaluable to both investors and sovereign states
As more governments set up investment migration programmes, and those with existing programmes introduce more options to mitigate the destruction caused by coronavirus, residence and citizenship programmes will continue to be invaluable both to investors intending to futureproof their families and change the trajectories of their legacies, as well as to sovereign states in desperate need of alternative revenue streams.
Investment migration will act as a hedge against the significant macro-economic volatility that is predicted, creating even more sovereign and societal value across the world. The industry continues to boom despite Covid-19, and the Antigua & Barbuda CIP offers a range of competitive and desirable options, particularly to investors looking to start afresh and relocate their families to safer shores.
